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Highlights
Spot trading on The Plastics Exchange jumped to 16.9 million lbs offered, with HD grades leading completed PE transactions
Domestic Resindex prices eased about a cent across the PE and PP slate; export FAS softened roughly $22/MT
April Polyethylene contract increases of $.30/lb fully implemented; another $.20/lb remains nominated for May
April PGP contract settled up $.125/lb to $.59/lb, but spot PGP has slipped below contract — creating a spot discount worth watching
Summary
The resin markets picked up the pace this week, reversing the quieter tone of recent sessions as sentiment improved and activity broadened across both domestic and export channels. Polyethylene and Polypropylene each saw better participation from international buyers, and while domestic spot prices generally slipped about a cent, the overall feel was more positive with supplies remaining tight across commodity PE and select PP grades. Trading volumes on The Plastics Exchange increased as buyers re-engaged following weeks of cautious restocking, and completed transactions came in meaningfully above the prior week
Spot pricing moved around during the week but ended slightly lower despite another active week in crude, monomers, and geopolitics. The panic buying seen in March and early April has faded, but the market has not turned loose. Domestic buyers remain cautious and are generally purchasing for immediate needs while working through material secured during the run-up. International buyers, however, began to re-engage late in the week, particularly for Polyethylene, as lower-priced Chinese offers started to thin and the reality of still-disrupted Middle Eastern supply channels remained in focus.
The export market showed notable improvement, with some producers offering selective discounting on certain prime grades to move incremental volume. However, this was far from universal. Exxon, Dow, and Borouge International, which recently completed its acquisition of NOVA Chemicals, creating the world's fourth-largest polyolefins company, are directing the lion's share of their available North American prime Polyethylene resin to international regions where their own Middle Eastern production has been disrupted.
The tone was mixed rather than weak. Polyethylene saw better participation than Polypropylene, with HD grades leading completed volumes, followed by LD and LLDPE. Domestic PE prices were mostly flat to slightly lower, while export pricing softened modestly as global buyers continued comparing US offers against Asian alternatives.
Polypropylene was quieter and remains more dependent on domestic consumption, though Total’s Force Majeure on several Homopolymer products from La Porte added a modest tightening factor.
Polyethylene producers have secured their $.30/lb April increase and continue to press for another $.20/lb for May. Polypropylene contracts were heavily influenced by the April PGP settlement, which finalized up $.125/lb to $.59/lb, while producers also captured varying levels of margin expansion. Spot PGP, however, continued to soften into May, creating a clear disconnect between contract settlement levels and current spot monomer costs.
The broader market remains supported by structural disruption, even if spot enthusiasm has cooled. The War in Iran continues to limit normal feedstock and resin flows, vessels remain displaced, and several Middle Eastern petrochemical assets are still offline or operating at reduced rates. At the same time, disciplined producer behavior, limited prime spot availability, and selective export demand have prevented a deeper correction. The market is not surging, but it is also not breaking.
Iran War Impact on Petrochemical Markets
Monitoring war-related outages, force majeures, and production reductions across the global petrochemical supply chain. Visit this page to follow up developments as they emerge.
Resindex Recap
Below is a recap of our domestic Resindex prices and their change this week, all grades down a cent:
HDPE Blow: $0.830/lb (-$.01/lb)
HDPE Injection: $0.820/lb (-$.01/lb)
HMWPE: $0.850/lb (-$.01/lb)
LDPE Film: $0.880/lb (-$.01/lb)
LLDPE Film: $0.820/lb (-$.01/lb)
LDPE Injection: $0.890/lb (-$.01/lb)
LLDPE Injection: $0.820/lb (-$.01/lb)
Homopolymer PP: $0.800/lb (-$.01/lb)
Copolymer PP: $0.850/lb (-$.01/lb)
Below is a recap of our export Resindex prices, all grades down $22/MT:
HDPE Blow: $1742/MT (-$22)
HDPE Injection: $1720/MT (-$22)
HMWPE: $1786/MT (-$22)
LDPE Film: $1918/MT (-$22)
LLDPE Film: $1742/MT (-$22)
LDPE Injection: $1896/MT (-$22)
LLDPE Injection: $1742/MT (-$22)
Homopolymer PP: $1742/MT (-$22)
Copolymer PP: $1830/MT (-$22)
Polyethylene
Polyethylene was the more active resin market this week, finding better footing after the relatively small prior correction. Domestic buyers returned selectively, not with the urgency seen earlier in the rally, but with more purposeful interest to cover near-term needs. International buyers also re-engaged, particularly from Europe and Latin America, as cheaper Chinese offers thinned out, and the extended disruption to Middle Eastern supply again became a hot topic for discussion.
Completed transactions improved across the PE slate, with HD grades leading the week’s business, followed by LD and then LLDPE. Blow Mold and Film grades saw the best turnover as processors replenished inventory without overcommitting. The tone was still cautious but more positive than the prior week, even though buyers remain reluctant to chase elevated offers.
Resellers who had built inventory during the March and early-April run are beginning to run low. Once those stocks are depleted, replacement costs will be materially higher, as producer offers remain at elevated levels. Fresh PE offers are at price points where some buyers are having difficulty finding value at the moment, but the reality is that resellers have been booking profits below replacement cost. That dynamic has a shelf life. For now, the market is holding, not surging, but not breaking either.
Domestic PE Resindex levels were a penny lower on the week, several cents off their cycle highs, but still mostly priced along the range of the $.80s/lb, holding near the levels established after the recent pullback. The fact that domestic prices did not erode further shows producer discipline as they continued to quietly export incremental availability, keeping it off the domestic market. Although spot export volumes have waned, producers seem confident with their positions; however, we will see in the coming week whether slack exports have backed up their inventories.
The export market improved late in the week, though it lacked the aggressive buying seen during the early part of the Iran War. Competitive Chinese offers weighed on international bids earlier in the week, but some of those lower-priced positions appear to be selling out and they were indeed replaced by lower volumes and at higher prices to international buyers.
US export PE values were still flat to slightly lower, with several grades down around $22/MT, but buyers did return to test US availability. Prime export sales remain difficult at current levels, while offgrade has continued to find homes more readily.
A key structural support is that several integrated producers are directing meaningful North American prime volumes into their own international systems to cover production shortfalls from damaged or curtailed Middle Eastern operations. Dow's Sadara joint venture with Saudi Aramco in Jubail, which has 750,000 MT/year of PE capacity, remains shuttered after the IRGC missile and drone attacks in late March. Borouge's massive Ruwais complex in Abu Dhabi, home to over 5 million MT/year of polyolefin capacity, sustained damage from intercepted Iranian missile debris in early April and has been operating at significantly reduced rates while repairs continue. ExxonMobil's KEMYA operations at Jubail were also targeted in the April 7th strikes. These three producers are essentially backfilling their own global shortfalls with North American output, keeping domestic availability firm even as they resist broad-based export discounting. That has limited the amount of prime resin being freely pushed into the domestic spot market.
US Polyethylene producers positioning remains firm. April PE contracts have effectively moved up $.30/lb, adding to the $.05/lb January and $.10/lb March increases, bringing 2026 contract gains to $.45/lb. Another $.20/lb remains nominated for May. Spot prices have backed off from early-April highs, so May implementation will require either stronger export demand, renewed geopolitical pressure, or continued producer discipline. For now, producers are not showing much willingness to discount fresh railcars, while resellers continue to move previously purchased inventory at lower margins.
Polyethylene has moved out of panic mode and into a more balanced phase, albeit at much higher price levels. Demand is not aggressive, but supply is not loose. Export interest is rebuilding, and producer replacement pricing remains elevated. The market has stabilized, but the next move will depend heavily on whether international demand continues to absorb US pounds.
Polypropylene
Polypropylene traded with a somewhat firmer underlying tone this past week despite lower PGP values; the market was supported by better domestic inquiries and Total's Force Majeure declaration on several HOPP product trains from its La Porte, TX facility. While the market is buoyed by higher contract monomer costs and selective supply limitations, overall spot demand has cooled as buyers work through material purchased during the March and early-April rally.
The Total FM was triggered by a power failure that shut down Trains 2, 4, 6, 7, and 9, removing meaningful Homopolymer capacity from the market. This did not create a broad shortage, but the HoPP market was noticeably more active as a result. The flow of offgrade was good, while producers continued to restrict availability of generic prime railcars. Sourcing became a touch more difficult, particularly for prime truckloads as reseller inventories have become scarce.
Domestic and export PP Resindex prices eased $.01/lb on the week. Homopolymer remained the primary focus of spot activity, while Copolymer was comparatively quiet. Transactions were more often centered around truckload quantities and packaged material, where ready-to-ship supply still commands a premium.
The April PGP contract settlement was the central development. PGP finalized up $.125/lb to $.59/lb, taking contract PGP gains to $.285/lb so far in 2026. Producers also captured varying degrees of margin expansion, generally around $.06-.07/lb depending on supplier and index marker. Spot PGP, however, has fallen below the contract level and started May near $.505/lb, which gives buyers reason to resist additional resin increases.
Some PP producers have adjusted their selling strategy away from traditional PGP-plus formulas, offering more precise resin pricing designed to preserve a wider spread over monomer. Buyer reaction has been mixed. Some appreciate cost certainty, while others see the move as margin protection at a time when spot monomer is already signaling potential relief.
PP lacks PE’s deep export channel, which leaves it more dependent on domestic demand. That matters now, as domestic processors remain cautious and are working through earlier purchases. The market is not weak, but it is more sensitive to buyer hesitation. If PGP rebounds or Middle East tensions escalate, PP could quickly firm again. If spot monomer remains near current levels, we would expect some relief for May PGP and PP contracts.
Ethylene
Spot Ethylene began the week quietly but finished with a firm undertone. Even with incremental PE export demand less urgent than it was earlier in the conflict, US crackers and derivative units continue to run hard, keeping a floor under the market. Availability is no longer as constrained as it was during the peak of the war-driven rally, but it is nowhere near the loose conditions seen late last year.
Prompt May bids opened Monday near $.31/lb, about a penny above the prior week’s final indications, while sellers initially held offers near $.38/lb. With the prompt spread too wide, buyers looked forward and secured June barrels at $.36/lb. Physical negotiations then became more active, and dated delivery business was completed later in the day.
On Tuesday, May Ethylene quickly strengthened, with several deliveries transacting at $.36/lb. June also traded at $.36/lb, July at $.35625/lb, and Louisiana material moved around $.3525/lb. Wednesday was quieter as participants reassessed after the broader energy selloff, but the market did not meaningfully break.
Thursday brought the heaviest physical activity. Several May deliveries traded at $.34/lb, followed by another at $.335/lb. Louisiana prompt Ethylene was also completed twice at $.335/lb, showing that the prior Texas premium has largely narrowed. On Friday, prompt Texas bids were noted near $.33/lb against offers around $.35/lb, and the market again found middle ground with additional business at $.34/lb.
Financial Ethylene activity picked up materially. June and July were hedged early in the week, while additional paper transactions were completed for June, 3Q, 4Q, and 1Q 2027. European paper business dominated midweek, with NWE Ethylene bids near €1,625/MT and offers closer to €1,695/MT, while 3Q bids were seen around €1,450-1,475/MT. The transatlantic spread remains wide and continues to validate US Ethylene’s global relevance, and the easiest way to export the material is in the form of Polyethylene pellets.
The weighted average of spot May Ethylene finished near $.34/lb, essentially unchanged on the week after a brief early jump and later retracement. Deferred values eased modestly from July forward, and the backwardation widened slightly. The market is no longer in a panic, but global feedstock disruption continues to support US values.
Propylene (PGP)
Physical Propylene was less active than Ethylene and continues to feel tired after the significant run-up and correction of the past several weeks. The market appears to be consolidating around the $.50/lb level, with buyers more cautious and sellers less willing to chase lower numbers unless prompt demand weakens further.
Monday saw limited interest until late morning, when spot May bids emerged near $.46/lb. Prompt offers were not immediately shown, but a May delivery was eventually negotiated at $.525/lb, up about $.02/lb from the prior Friday’s transactions. On Tuesday, buyers pulled back and prompt bids disappeared. Sellers reappeared with offers near $.525/lb, and a couple of prompt deliveries were completed at $.505/lb.
By midweek, bids slipped toward $.45/lb, but sellers withdrew offers rather than chase the market lower. On Thursday, offers resurfaced around $.48/lb, and participants completed several May deliveries between $.475-.48/lb. Friday brought some forward interest but no additional physical business. The lack of urgency pushed the market lower on the week.
Financial PGP activity was also light, with most paper dealings concentrated late in the week. Hedging focused on 1Q 2027, while deferred values continued to slip. The weighted average of spot May PGP fell roughly $.04/lb to around $.480/lb by Friday afternoon, and the forward curve remained backwardated. Prices from July onward moved back below $.50/lb.
April PGP contracts settled up $.125/lb to $.59/lb, but spot values are now pointing toward a potential May decrease if current levels hold. That creates an awkward transition for Polypropylene. Producers captured a large April monomer increase and margin expansion, while spot PGP has already moved lower. Buyers are watching that spread closely.
The broader Propylene picture remains mixed. International demand is still elevated, and Middle Eastern supply restrictions have lasted long enough that global buyers may eventually need to lean more heavily on US Polypropylene, the easiest way to ship internationally. At the same time, PP exports remain less flexible than PE exports, and domestic demand has cooled. For now, PGP is consolidating and remains volatile.
Energy Markets
The energy complex was volatile again, though crude ultimately finished lower as contradictory headlines around Iran, Hormuz, and US policy kept traders unsettled. Early in the week, crude firmed after negotiations failed to progress and President Trump extended the blockade of Iranian ports. A proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to the blockade and broader hostilities was not accepted, keeping geopolitical risk in the market.
Crude Oil
By midweek, sentiment shifted. The White House gave mixed signals on escorting vessels through the Strait, then suggested a peace deal could be near. Crude sold off sharply before recovering modestly after another exchange of fire between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf. The result was a whipsaw week that made geopolitical premium difficult to price with confidence.
June WTI traded through a wide range, from a Monday high of $107.46/bbl to a Wednesday low of $88.66/bbl, before settling Friday at $95.42/bbl, down $6.52 on the week. July Brent followed a similar pattern, trading from a Monday high of $115.25/bbl to a Thursday low of $96.07/bbl, and settling at $101.29/bbl, down $6.88 week-over-week.
EIA data reinforced that US inventories are not flush enough to fully offset international disruption. For the week ending May 1, US commercial crude inventories declined 2.3 million bbl to 457.2 million bbl, about 1% above the five-year seasonal average. Gasoline inventories fell 2.5 million bbl and were about 4% below the five-year average, while distillate inventories dropped 1.3 million bbl and remained roughly 11% below average. Refinery utilization held near 90.1%, while propane/propylene inventories fell 1.3 million bbl but remained a very comfortable 56% above the five-year average.
OPEC-related news remained important. OPEC output reportedly fell sharply in April as Hormuz disruption limited Gulf exports, while OPEC+ efforts to increase supply are being blunted by logistics constraints. The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1 adds another layer to the story. In the longer term, more UAE output could be bearish, particularly because it can export without transiting Hormuz. In the near term, however, vessel displacement, constrained Iranian exports, and damaged regional infrastructure continue to matter more.
Natural Gas
Natural Gas traded on its own fundamentals and was softer overall, though it found some support from LNG demand and lower production late in the week. The EIA reported a 63 Bcf storage injection for the week ending May 1, bringing working gas to 2,205 Bcf, still 139 Bcf above the five-year average. June Natural Gas finished near $2.75/mmBtu.
NGLs
NGLs were mixed. Ethane held near $.201/gal, supported by steady cracker demand and strong exports, while Propane eased to roughly $.877/gal as crude volatility worked through the chain’s economics.
The energy market remains unsettled rather than outright bullish or bearish. The geopolitical premium has come down, but the underlying physical system is still not normal.
-Michael Greenberg
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